Plasma just raised $500M in TVL via an ICO-like mechanism. Hyperliquid ($HYPE) continues to massively outperform. Both represent index protocols over a hot sector. What does this mean for other alts?
Re: index companies, Elad Gil (the biggest Solo capitalist ~$1B AUM) has written about this, but I think it's a bit too hand wavey and has more to do with marketing/positioning/narrative than actually mapping to marketshare and moat potential.
- Stripe is an okay index on e-commerce, but a better index on the internet payments in general.
Their mission to "increase the GDP of the internet" makes sense once you realize they want to capture a 3% "tax" on that new GDP.
That said, I'd argue SHOP or AMZN are better e-com indices, and that Adyen is like a 1-1 biz to Stripe which has outperformed Stripe in some years. PayPal still relevant too and arguably has better network effects than Stripe/Adyen. Payments are huge but fragmented.
- Illumina, SpaceX, Anduril - I hard agree as indices on genetic testing, launches, and defense, respectively. They all have technological, regulatory, and distribution moats with >70% market with no real competitors, with value flowing their platforms. The same cannot be said for Stripe.
- NVDIA: AI is the market leader for AI right now, but is facing extreme competition from Amazon, Google, etc. making their own chips. One can argue that TSMC or ASML have more of a moat than NVIDIA, with higher barriers to entry and no direct competitors unlike NVIDIA.
On crypto indices:
- I believe BTC is a better index on crypto than Coinbase, though perhaps more volatile. Coinbase's stockprice has been negative since its IPO. I can imagine BTC 10x, 100xing, 1000xing... but Coinbase is not capturing all that value, since they are mostly retail. Institutional is way bigger - more money will flow through Blackstone/Fidelity ETFs ultimately than Coinbase. DATs/Microstrategy might be a better index on crypto at this point.
- ETH is an index on Defi, SOL an index on memecoins ofc.
- I believe TRX or CRCL are better indices on stablecoins. XPL still vaporware, no whitepaper even, they'd have to flip TRX which has network effects already
- I think KTA's current index claim is more of an RWA index or XRP killer. Still too early.
- Agree that HYPE is an index on crypto in general. Any exchange is - which are the best crypto investments thus far (besides L1 networks/foundations). But again, exchanges are probably indices on BTC. [[EDIT: HYPE is an index on crypto *trading* specifically]]
Yeah, to be clear I don't think XPL is an index yet- but its early interest (pre today ICO shenans) show hunger for Tether. clearly CRCL is the index for stables rn (I think Plasma/Stable exist to get off TRX).
- HYPE is an index on cfypto casino
- BTC is the index on all of crypto, not even close. I owouldnt put coinbase up there
- i think ETH/SOL index on different things, moreso ideologies in crypto (security vs speculation) but the downstream of that is the mkts that exist.
Re: index companies, Elad Gil (the biggest Solo capitalist ~$1B AUM) has written about this, but I think it's a bit too hand wavey and has more to do with marketing/positioning/narrative than actually mapping to marketshare and moat potential.
Going through his examples https://x.com/eladgil/status/1889445107436495022
- Stripe is an okay index on e-commerce, but a better index on the internet payments in general.
Their mission to "increase the GDP of the internet" makes sense once you realize they want to capture a 3% "tax" on that new GDP.
That said, I'd argue SHOP or AMZN are better e-com indices, and that Adyen is like a 1-1 biz to Stripe which has outperformed Stripe in some years. PayPal still relevant too and arguably has better network effects than Stripe/Adyen. Payments are huge but fragmented.
- Illumina, SpaceX, Anduril - I hard agree as indices on genetic testing, launches, and defense, respectively. They all have technological, regulatory, and distribution moats with >70% market with no real competitors, with value flowing their platforms. The same cannot be said for Stripe.
- NVDIA: AI is the market leader for AI right now, but is facing extreme competition from Amazon, Google, etc. making their own chips. One can argue that TSMC or ASML have more of a moat than NVIDIA, with higher barriers to entry and no direct competitors unlike NVIDIA.
On crypto indices:
- I believe BTC is a better index on crypto than Coinbase, though perhaps more volatile. Coinbase's stockprice has been negative since its IPO. I can imagine BTC 10x, 100xing, 1000xing... but Coinbase is not capturing all that value, since they are mostly retail. Institutional is way bigger - more money will flow through Blackstone/Fidelity ETFs ultimately than Coinbase. DATs/Microstrategy might be a better index on crypto at this point.
- ETH is an index on Defi, SOL an index on memecoins ofc.
- I believe TRX or CRCL are better indices on stablecoins. XPL still vaporware, no whitepaper even, they'd have to flip TRX which has network effects already
- I think KTA's current index claim is more of an RWA index or XRP killer. Still too early.
- Agree that HYPE is an index on crypto in general. Any exchange is - which are the best crypto investments thus far (besides L1 networks/foundations). But again, exchanges are probably indices on BTC. [[EDIT: HYPE is an index on crypto *trading* specifically]]
Yeah, to be clear I don't think XPL is an index yet- but its early interest (pre today ICO shenans) show hunger for Tether. clearly CRCL is the index for stables rn (I think Plasma/Stable exist to get off TRX).
- HYPE is an index on cfypto casino
- BTC is the index on all of crypto, not even close. I owouldnt put coinbase up there
- i think ETH/SOL index on different things, moreso ideologies in crypto (security vs speculation) but the downstream of that is the mkts that exist.
equities i agree with